Daily Uganda Shilling/United States Dollar Exchange Rates Modeling by Box-Jenkins Techniques

Daily Uganda Shilling/United States Dollar Exchange Rates Modeling by Box-Jenkins Techniques

Blog Article

A 180-point daily exchange rate series of the Uganda shilling (UGX) and the United States dollar (USD) covering from 25 August 2014 to 20 February 2015 is analyzed by Part Diagram seasonal Box-Jenkins methods.A time-plot of the series shows an upward trend indicating a relative depreciation of the UGX.A seven-day differencing of the series yield a series that is adjudged stationary by the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Test.However, its correlogram contradicts a stationarity hypothesis.A non-seasonal differencing of this Secondary Axle series produces a series adjudged as stationary and having an autocorrelation function that suggests two models, namely: a SARIMA(0,1,1)x(0,1,1)7 and a SARIMA(0,1,1)x(1,1,1)7.

Diagnostic checking methods used to compare the two models reveal that the former model is the more adequate model.Hence it is proposed that the exchange rates follow a SARIMA(0,1,1)x(0,1,1)7 model.Forecasting might therefore be based on this model.